About a month is now left in the hands of political parties to campaign for the Lok Sabha elections in Gujarat. BJP has announced its candidates for all 26 seats, on the other hand Congress is yet to find candidates for seven seats.
BJP has been continuously claiming for some time that it will win each seat with a margin of five lakhs. But in the last few days, due to the controversy of Parshottam Rupala, the change of BJP candidates in seats like Sabarkantha and Vadodara, the issue of internal tension in BJP in some other seats, the 'claims of winning each seat with a lead of five lakhs' have started to be questioned.
For the past few days, the BJP seems to be stuck only trying to quell this discontent and protest. On the other hand, the campaigning of opposition candidates in some Lok Sabha seats is also eye-catching. There is a constant battle between Mansukh Vasava and Chaitar Vasava on the popular Bharuch seat of Gujarat. Both the candidates are constantly doing public relations.
So, the Congress candidate from Banaskantha seat of North Gujarat is also constantly in discussion with his statements. His slogan of 'Banasi Behin Ganibehan' is getting widespread support on social media. Apart from this, he also targetted the local BJP leader in his speeches without naming names, saying that Banaskantha has to be freed from his influence.
BJP has announced a new candidate for Valsad seat. But as the Congress gave ticket to the 'militant' leader Anant Patel, the contest has become interesting here as well. According to political analysts, these seats are expected to be fiercely contested. At the same time, he also says that it would be too early to predict BJP's victory in these seats. What is the math of these seats? How political parties are fighting this battle?
Bharuch debated before the election was announced
Under the Bharuch Lok Sabha seat of Gujarat, there are Jangia, Dediapada, Ankleshwar, Bharuch, Jambusar, Wagra and Karajan assembly constituencies in the area. Among these seven seats, Dediapada seat is held by Aam Aadmi Party while all remaining six seats are held by BJP.
Bharuch has been dominated by the BJP since the last ten terms of the Lok Sabha. According to contributor Sajid Patel, there are 30 to 32 percent tribal voters and 25 to 27 percent Muslim voters.
In the last election, the Congress fielded a Muslim candidate here. This time, the matter has become more interesting as a tribal candidate has been fielded under the India coalition. Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal came to Bharuch and announced him as the candidate, while Chaitar Vasava was in jail.
Says senior journalist and political analyst Naresh Varia, “Chaitar Vasava had a resounding victory in the last assembly and ended the political dominance of Chotubhai and Mahesh Vasava. Apart from this, Chaitar Vasava has been continuously raising the issues of tribals. Even though a case was filed against him and he went to jail, people also sympathize with him. All these reasons will work in their favour.”
Mansukh Vasava, on the other hand, has the experience of winning here for six consecutive terms and also has some positives.
Naresh Varia says, “Mansukh Vasava's impression is due to the strong organization of the BJP and the disobedience of officials. People believe that they are also fighting for tribals.”
Talking about the last Lok Sabha elections, Mansukh Vasava defeated Congress candidate Sher Khan Pathan by 3.34 lakh votes. At first sight this lead looks big.
But Naresh Varia believes, “The reason behind BJP's 3.34 lakh lead in Bharuch seat in 2019 was the Congress candidate, who had no dominance in the tribal areas. While Chaitar Vasava has the support of both tribal-Muslim communities. It also remains to be seen how much the Congress will help your candidate at the ground level, but it is clear that the contest is equal.”
They believe that Arvind Kejriwal's post-election arrest also has implications in one category, which may benefit Chaitar Vasava.Apart from that, two other important factors can affect the outcome of Bharuch seat. Chhotu Vasava has announced his new party, on the other hand Asaduddin Awaisi's party AIMIM has also announced to field its candidate here.
Naresh Varia says, “I don't think it will make much of a difference if Chotubhai Vasava contests the election or even if AIMIM also fields a candidate. Chotubhai would cut votes for both parties while AIMIM would lose Muslim votes. But people have also recognized AIMIM. But, it is important to see who is their candidate?”
BJP spokesperson Dr. Yagnesh Dave says, “In Bharuch, tribal voters are already on the BJP side while we are getting wide support from Muslim voters as well. We have been winning in Bharuch against a strong party like Congress and Mansukhbhai has been winning for six consecutive terms. This time he has given Ahmed Patel's traditional seat to a candidate whose party leaders run the government from jail. Due to which we will have no problem in winning."
Aam Aadmi Party spokesperson Dr. Karan Barot says, “In Bharuch, we had already started preparing to contest one-and-a-half years ago. That is why false cases were filed against him to ruin Chaitar Vasava's time.”
“In Bharuch we took out the Swabhiman Yatra which passed through the headquarters of every Assembly coming under Bharuch. Right now we are campaigning through you, your son. Our leaders Gopal Italia, Manoj Sorthia are campaigning from village to village.”
He says, “Man-made floods caused by the BJP government in Bharuch have also caused losses of crores. Even then Mansukh Vasava, even though he was a member of parliament, did not go there for help and Chaitar Vasava helped the people.”
“At present, we are not under any false confidence that we have won this seat. But right now there is a tie at Bharuch seat and we will show it by working harder and winning this seat.”
About the Congress and AAP alliance, he says, “When Chaitar Vasava was announced as a candidate, one or two Congress leaders opposed it, but now there is nothing like that. Chaitar Vasava has held meetings with the Congress leadership at the taluka level and sought cooperation. Congress State President Shaktisinh Gohil also publicly told the workers that India has to fight unitedly under the alliance. Both sides are fighting together and this is clearly affecting Mansukh Vasava, who is lashing out in frustration.”
However, according to Naresh Varia, polarization will be the deciding factor in winning or losing this seat. If there is less polarization, Chaitar Vasava will benefit, while Mansukh Vasava will have an easy victory.
How long will the slogan of 'Banasi Behin Ganibhan' last in Banaskantha?
In 2022, two seats under Banaskantha Lok Sabha, Vav and Danta, were won by the Congress, while the remaining five seats were won by the BJP.
Congress has given ticket to Vav MLA Ganibehan Thakor, on the other hand, BJP has fielded a new candidate, Dr. Ticket has been given to Rekha Chaudhary.
Chowdhury (Anjana Patel) and Thakor community have the largest number of voters in Banaskantha Lok Sabha seat. Hence, according to analysts, if the votes of both the communities are one-sided, the other communities can decide the winner. Hence, Congress candidates are often claiming in their rallies that 'they will get the votes of the entire society'.
Ganibhan said, “We started campaigning a month before the party gave me the ticket. People support me so much that I don't even have to fill my vehicle with petrol for campaigning yet."
Apart from this, Congress candidate Ganibhan Thakor has been using the slogan 'Banasani Behan Ganibhan' in his statements for some time now and is talking about freeing Banaskantha from the slavery of one person.
It is clear from his statements that Ganibhan is making this election a fight for Banaskantha's identity. They accuse the BJP candidate of being an outsider. BJP candidate Rekhabehan Chaudhary has been denying their allegations and has been putting in front of people that she is an educated candidate.
Looking at the campaigning of both the candidates, it is clearly visible that there will be an even match between the two women in Banaskantha.Senior journalist and political analyst Dr. Hari Desai says, “Shankarbhai Chaudhary is the Chairman of Dairy and an influential leader. Even in the Chowdhury community, he is now considered omnipotent, so he can have an impact on the elections.”
He says, “Factors that could benefit BJP candidate Rekhabehan Chaudhary are 'financial instruments' and 'dairy network'. These things are in favor of the BJP.”
According to him, the performance of the Congress will also depend on how and how much it helps the East Congress President Jagdish Thakor and his brother Ganibhan.
BJP spokesperson Dr. Yagnesh Dave says, “Ganibehan is spreading false propaganda against Rekhabehin and Rekhabehin is a native of Banaskantha. Ganibhan is trying to win only one com and playing politics of casteism. While BJP is contesting elections on the basis of everyone's support, everyone's development. Congress is only spreading casteism by taking the name of Thakor Samaj.”
Congress spokesperson Dr. Manish Doshi says, “Congress' biggest asset in Banaskantha is our candidate Ganibhan. He is an extremely popular public representative. Who is always at the service of the public. On the other hand, the BJP candidate has no public support.”
Accusing the BJP, he says, “The whole 'government' and 'cooperative' machinery is being misused in Banaskantha. The herdsmen never get justice and the BJP has taken over everywhere.”
According to him, Ganibhan is already speaking for the entire society and will get everyone's support.
However, here too the BJP won by a margin of more than 3.68 lakh in the last election. The big question is whether the Congress will be able to overcome the popularity of Ganibehan and win so well.
Can Anant Patel win the Congress in Valsad?
Out of Dang, Vansada, Dharampur, Valsad, Pardi, Kaprada and Umargam constituencies falling under Valsad constituency, only Vansada seat went to the Congress in the last Assembly. Anant Patel is the MLA from there, who has been given ticket by Congress. All remaining seats are held by BJP.
Congress candidate Anant Patel has been portrayed as a 'militant' tribal leader. Analysts believe that this will benefit the Congress.
Damanganga Times resident editor Vikas Upadhyay says, “Anant Patel's influence is not limited to the Vansada assembly. He has good hold and influence in the four assembly constituencies Dang, Vansda, Dharampur and Kaprada that fall under the Valsad Lok Sabha seat.”
On the other hand BJP has shocked everyone by giving ticket to new candidate Dhaval Patel from here. Naresh Varia says, “As for the BJP candidate for the Valsad seat, he is young and educated and hails from Vansada. But at the ground level they have no special hold or function. Here the BJP has to depend on the strength of the organization and the name of Narendra Modi.”
It may be mentioned here that the Valsad Lok Sabha seat was also won by the BJP in the last election by 3.53 lakh votes.BJP spokesperson Dr. Yagnesh Dave says, “In Valsad seat, BJP's victory is certain by five lakh votes and our candidate is also very educated. There was no specific reason behind the change of candidate in Valsad and the party changes candidates according to the strategy.”
So Congress spokesperson Manish Doshi says, "In Valsad too, the same slogan is going around, 'Ek Ech Chale, Anant Patel Chale'." Anant Patel's popularity is more influential in this area. Be it the issue of Anganwadi sisters, be it the issue of Par-Tapi project, be it the issue of mid-day meal, he has taken up people's issues every time."
Manish Doshi says, “Both parties are campaigning together under the 'India' coalition. This is not just a fight for power change but a fight to save democracy and the constitution. The issues were different in 2014 and 2019, whereas now people have realized that inflation and unemployment are increasing day by day in this government. That too will definitely benefit us and we will win.”
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